Adelaide University Economists Outline Drivers Behind State Growth Outlook

Economists from Adelaide University forecast South Australia’s gross state product to grow by 2% in 2025/26, driven by rising household spending, infrastructure projects like the South Road redevelopment, and a stronger grain crop.

The projection arrives as Greater Adelaide continues to account for more than 80% of the state’s overall economic output. Officials and analysts note that this concentration places renewed attention on activity within the City of Adelaide and surrounding areas, where daily spending patterns and employment trends shape broader state results.

Consumer Spending Reaches New Highs

Consumer expenditure in the City and North Adelaide reached a record $371 million in March 2025, up 5% from the previous year, with entertainment spending surging 188%. Workers in the Adelaide CBD and North Adelaide spent approximately $2.5 billion in the city in 2025, averaging $72 per day per worker. These figures underscore how local retail, hospitality and service sectors respond to consistent weekday presence in the central area.

Health care and construction remain leading employment sectors, recording 45% and 49% growth respectively in recent workforce data. The new Women’s and Children’s Hospital forms part of the infrastructure pipeline cited in the Adelaide University outlook, alongside the South Road redevelopment.

Employment Indicators Stay Stable

Adelaide’s unemployment rate stands at a low 4.5% with a labor participation rate of around 78%. These measures reflect steady demand across key industries even as the state prepares for the 2025/26 growth period outlined by university economists.

Further monitoring of household spending and project delivery will determine how closely actual outcomes align with the 2% forecast. Local businesses and workforce planners continue to track these indicators as the financial year progresses.